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68 comments on NYC: Best Place for $100 oil? Maybe...

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jeffvail on April 3, 2006 - 1:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That makes sense--the mode of transport (where NYC has an advantage) will help to moderate the extra distances required.  I don't know which one will win out, NYC is also in the center of the densely populated North East, and so will be facing much more competition for the product of the immediate surrounds.  A city like Atlanta--bane of our existence though it may be--may actually fare decently *on this particular point of analysis* because there is a lot of lighly populated land surrounding it.  Furthermore, in a really extreme scenario, the sparse population of standard suburbia may actually prove an advanage as the mere act of converting lawns to potato fields would be a huge (though theoretical) start...

On that note, I would re-evaluate the list in the article.  Based PURELY on this food/distance/transportation issue, I would list my top four as 1. Portland, 2. San Francisco, 3. Seattle, 4. Oakland.  These cities each have agriculturally productive and sparsely populated hinterlands in the very near vicinity.  On a full-spectrum analysis of the cities on that list, I personally think that Portland will fare far, far better than NYC...

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unplanner on April 3, 2006 - 2:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree.  THanks to Oregon's restrictive land use laws, the transition between agricultural areas and Metro portland is pretty abrupt.  You dont have to go too far from downtown to reach ag lands or potentially cultivated lands.  Although M37 has loosened restrictions, it has come late in the business cycle so comparatively few projects have or will likely be completed before the economy tanks.  The downside is while suburban portland is denser, it is still suburban for the most part.  Serious retrofitting will be needed for a number of these suburbs.  Metro portland may survive $100 oil better than Dallas, LA or NY.  It needs serious work to survive without it altogether however.  
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